
Global Rice Trade Faces Heightened Volatility as El Niño Strains Asian Production
As of November 2026, a strong El Niño pattern has induced drought across key Asian rice-producing countries, lifting Thai 5% broken white rice to $499 per tonne—its highest quotation since December 2024. In response to these weather shocks, the USDA and FAO have forecasted the first global rice production decline in more than a decade for the 2026/27 season, while Chicago rough rice futures have climbed by over 80% since the start of the year.
















